Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the international reactions that ensued, mark a watershed moment in energy history. For decades, Russia had been one of the world's main and (in many ways) most reliable suppliers of oil, natural gas and coal, despite chronic disputes with Ukraine over gas payments and exports. The invasion of Ukraine changes all that. Virtually overnight, Russia started losing access to Europe, its core energy export market, as well as to the U.S., UK and other markets. The degree to which it can redirect these exports remains to be seen -- as does the ability of the broader international market to rewire itself to deal with the disruption. Russia now finds itself under a vast and still-evolving array of international sanctions aimed in part at reducing or depriving it of its energy export revenues, and most of the world's leading industrialized nations face the prospect of a protracted -- and some might argue permanent -- loss of Russian energy supplies.
We are joined by Dr. Tatiana Mitrova and Sergey Vakulenko, two veteran energy experts with a combined 50 years of experience in the Russian energy sector, as well as Russian economist Sergei Guriev, who will provide an insider's view of these developments and assess their consequences for Russia's energy sector, its broader economy and its political outlook. More specifically, we aim to discuss the effectiveness of international sanctions and how resilient Russia's energy industry is likely to prove to be in the face of them; the extent to which Russia can redirect exports to Asia and elsewhere; what the long-term effect of sanctions on Russia's energy industry are likely to be; and other questions.
Please note this event will be a virtual session via Zoom Webinar from 11:00 AM until 12:30 PM EDT. Additional details will be provided to registered attendees prior to the session.
Dr. Tatiana Mitrova is a Research Fellow at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy and a Visiting Professor at the Institut d’Etudes Politiques de Paris (Sciences Po). She has been a member of the boards of directors of Schlumberger since July 2018 and PAO Novatek since April 2020. She has 25 years of experience in dealing with Russian, FSU and global energy markets, including production, transportation, demand, energy policy, pricing and market restructuring. From February 2017 to December 2020, she was the Executive Director of the Energy Centre of the Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO. Earlier, she has also been Head of Research in the Oil and Gas Department in the Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Dr. Mitrova is a graduate of Moscow State University’s Economics Department. She has more than 200 publications in scientific and business journals and is a co-author of 10 scientific books and the author of a best-seller, “The 8 and 1/2 Steps: How to Live, Love And Work At Full Capacity."
Dr. Sergei Guriev is a professor of economics at Sciences Po, Paris and a former chief economist of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (2016–2019). From 2004 to 2013, he served as Rector at the New Economic School (NES) in Moscow. His primary interests include corporate governance, political economics, economics of development and transition, contract theory and labor mobility. He has been a board member of Sberbank and E.On Russia. He is an Ordinary Member of the Academia Europaea and a Senior Member of the Institut universitaire de France. He is also a Global Member of the Trilateral Commission.
Sergey Vakulenko is an independent energy analyst based in Bonn, Germany, with 25 years of experience at leading Russian and international oil and gas companies and industry consultancies. He has served as head of startegy, sustainability and innovations at Gazprom Neft in St. Petersburg, Managing Director at IHS CERA in London, and held a number of positions at Shell in London and the Hague. He holds Masters in Applied Mathematics and Computer Science from the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology and Master of Arts in Law and Diplomacy from the Fletcher School at Tufts and Harvard Universities.
Antoine Halff is adjunct senior research scholar at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy and chief analyst and founding partner at Kayrros, a data analytics company that leverages artificial intelligence, advanced mathematics and satellite imaging to help its clients track energy and commodity flows, monitor industrial assets and reduce their climate footprint. Earlier, he served as chief oil analyst of the International Energy Agency in Paris, lead industry economist at the U.S. Energy Information Administration, head of commodities research at Newedge, a Société Générale subsidiary, and director of the Global Energy practice at Eurasia Group, among others. His book, Energy Poverty: Global Challenges and Local Solutions (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2014), co-edited with Jon Rozhon and Benjamin Sovacool, was released by Oxford University Press in 2014. Mr. Halff holds an advanced degree from the Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales, Paris, and a Masters from Université Paris VII.
11:00 AM - 12:30 PM: Panel Discussion and Q&A
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